"The military balance can only be ensured by Russia's nuclear might, which isn't as expensive to maintain as many people think. Russia claims to have some 750 tanks in its western military region, though its unclear how much of that equipment is legitimately combat-ready. A review of the military balance in the immediate Baltic theater would seem to give Russia an initial advantage in an aerial campaign against NATO, if Moscow's political objective was to push NATO out of the Baltics. On 16 November, Russia carried out a missile test in. NATO said earlier this week it had stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance's military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation with Moscow and give more time to talks. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko, File). With modern technology and nuclear weapons, some wonder what a new World War would look like. That's reflected in the fact that Russia maintains a lone aircraft carrier while the U.S. Navy's 10-carrier fleet operates on a continuing global deployment cycle. Paula Bronstein for Foreign Policy. Ukraine's anticipated counter-offensive will be like a "big bang," a military expert told The Sun. Dr. Farley is the author of "Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force" (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), "the Battleship Book" (Wildside, 2016), "Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology" (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently "Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages" (Lynne Rienner, 2023). How much are the Russians truly capable of? Disputes between Athens and Ankara over energy exploration in the Aegean have driven the current tension, although the territorial disagreement underlying the argument have existed for decades. Instead she's set to lead the U.S., NATO, and Europe down a path of ruin, warns Scott Ritter. (Homs Media Centre via AP). Even prior to this year, Russia and the United States had been abandoning long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, commenced the development of new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the range of circumstances in which these weapons might be used. In response, the U.S. and its NATO allies are working to build, train and equip Ukrainian forces. Maintaining peace requires careful statesmanship; managing escalation during war requires extraordinary skill. These five areas pose the greatest risk for the eruption of what we might be tempted to call "World War III.". AFP PHOTO / VASILY MAXIMOV (Photo credit should read VASILY MAXIMOV/AFP/Getty Images). In our scenario, well look at a surprise nuclear first strike that leads to all-out war. Most of them are legacy Soviet ships. Still, a nuclear war is not impossible. Have your say in our news democracy. I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities. "It is good for us to be aware how they fight," said Evelyn Farkas, deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, in an interview with Military Times on Sept. 10. Russia has one of the biggest nuclear arsenals in the world, and is estimated to have thousands of nuclear warheads in its stockpile, assigned for both long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. Vladimir Putin accuses west of 'nuclear blackmail' in rare national address, This is what nuclear war between US and Russia would look like, according to scientists, Flesh-eating microbes are causing huge concern in the US, Man vanishes without a trace after sinkhole swallows up his bedroom while he sleeps, FBI issue safety warning about charging phones at airport. An attack on just one city in the U.S. could cause fatalities in the hundreds of thousands and just as many injuries, Tara Drozdenko, director of the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, tells Popular Mechanics. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has set off a new wave of concern about cyber attacks. It's about "working out at what point a military response is the correct response," said Nick de Larrinaga, a London-based analyst for IHS Jane's Defense and Security Group. Russia views itself as a land-based power, exerting influence in a sphere expanding outward from its Eurasian heartland into Eastern Europe, Central Asia and possibly the Middle East and Pacific rim. Committee votes on major defense policy bill expected in May, Military families share workout with first lady Jill Biden, US conducts first evacuation of its citizens from Sudan war, Ukrainian drones strike Crimea oil depot, Russian official says, Army identifies 3 soldiers killed in Alaska helicopter crash, Understanding the role of artificial intelligence, Mark Kitz keynote speech at the C4ISRNET conference, The latest on software, data and artificial intelligence, Army grounds helicopter fleet for force-wide safety stand down. The year 2021 has seen a fundamental shift in British defence and security policy. The United States signalled Friday that a. All of this at a time when Russian forces are massing on Ukraine's borders, Moscow has been demanding Nato withdraw from some of its member states, and China is making ever louder noises about retaking Taiwan - by force if necessary. "We are really at a strategic inflection point where we - the US, the UK and our allies - are coming out of 20 years of focusing on counter terrorism and counter insurgency, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lifting our gaze to realise we are now in a very serious great-power competition," she says. Hearst Magazine Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Scientists at Princeton University decided to develop this potential scenario using "independent assessments of current U.S. and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets. Russian air force Su-30MKI fighter jet takes off during the MAKS-2015 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015. Russia remains weak, according to many traditional criteria. Its airspace also is heavily fortified. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. With hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles rolling off assembly lines and Russian jets buzzing European skies under NATOs wary eye, it doesnt look like Russias economic woes have had any impact on the Kremlins ambitious military modernization program. Concern that Russia might use nuclear weapons to restore its flagging fortunes in Ukraine seems to have declined since summer, as the war has settled into a destructive stalemate. Those that survive would be left without power, medical care, communications, and viable food and fuel distribution networks. Here, the US has the qualitative edge over its potential adversaries and Michele Flournoy believes it can offset areas where the West is outnumbered by the vast size of China's People's Liberation Army. In late September, all sides agreed to withdraw tanks and heavy artillery from Ukraine's eastern front. Falling on May 9, it commemorates the Nazi surrender of World War II with a lavish spectacle meant to project might. Photo Credit: Vasily Maximov/AFP/Getty Images. "It looks like I face life in jail for that case," Navalny said. Such a scenario would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. And they started investing massively in a whole host of new technologies.". Putin and his military have menaced the Baltic countries, who are among the newest and weakest NATO partners. Russia launches the remainder of its nukes, this time with an eye toward destruction of anything that could contribute to the war effort. Bombers are particularly useful in this situation, as they could be used to actively hunt down what remained of Russias ICBMs, particularly those like the SS-27 mounted on 16-wheeled missile transport trucks. The exercise will feature the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the guided missile cruiser Moskva, as well as several smaller escort vessels and large amphibious assault and landing ships, Russia's TASS news agency reported. Russias invasion of Ukraine is already one of the most destructive and lethal wars in recent memory, from the shelling of cities to the use of thermobaric vacuum weapons. Thats led experts and civilians, alike, to wonder whatif NATO and the U.S. become directly involved in the conflicta nuclear war between Washington and Moscow might look like. Cities like Seattle, uncomfortably close to Joint Base Kitsap, the home of the Pacific Fleets ballistic missile submarines, would likely take some damage. Assured destruction is a powerful disincentive to using even just one nuclear weapon, let alone using hundreds in an apocalyptic attack. "It became clear that Russia is going to exercise a more ambitious policy in the Middle East. The arrival of these weapons in China's arsenal is now making Washington think twice about going to war to defend Taiwan if China does decide to invade it. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. The war has had a ripple effect on the world stage, dramatically increasing the stakes of disputes that have quietly smoldered for decades. First off, "future warfare" is already here. Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance's southern flank. What these documents reveal, however, is that the war is going worse for Ukraine than our political leaders have admitted to us, while going badly for Russia too, so that neither side is likely to . But there's one area where the West is falling dangerously behind Russia and China. ", You can listen Frank Gardner's full report on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, guest-edited by General Sir Nick Carter, the former Chief of Defence Staff, Russia launches pre-dawn missile attack on Ukraine, Chaos at port as thousands rush to leave Sudan, Suspected IS chief killed in Syria, Turkey says. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL they're about something else.". Up goes the budget for digital technology, artificial intelligence and cyber. "In addition to the immediate death and suffering and economic and societal collapse, in the years following the war, the phenomenon of nuclear winter would exacerbate the catastrophe," he said, pointing to one study which found that more than five billion people could eventually die from a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China's catastrophic covid experience. KYIV "After Ukraine, Chechnya," says the Chechen commander fighting on Kyiv's side. Mad men, unbound by reality and a survival instinct, might also choose nuclear war. Yet the tension between the U.S. and Russia over the war is a reminder that as long as both sides have nuclear weapons, the possibility of a nuclear war happening is not zero. Yet the Obama administration has been reluctant to provide more robust support, determined, it seems, to avoid the potential for a proxy war with the Russians. Here, Popular Mechanics examines two classic nuclear attack scenarios: a counterforce strike and a countervalue strike. The Russians don't have much in the way of long-range power projection capability," said Mark Galeotti, a Russian security expert at New York University.Moscow's military campaign in Syria is relying on supply lines that require air corridors through both Iranian and Iraqi air space. For a conventional operation, Russia also could bring assets from its Northern Fleet, which frequently patrols the North Atlantic, into the Baltic theater to support a larger action. Millions more injured in the attacks and unable to reach a hospital would likely succumb to their injuries. Ukrainian troops man an anti-aircraft weapon at a checkpoint outside the town of Amvrosiivka, close to the Russian border. "It would be a contested environment. Much of this has been directed at cyber activity - disruptive attacks aimed at undermining the fabric of Western society, influencing elections, stealing sensitive data. That could include Iraq, the leadership of which has invited the Russians to assist in the fight against the Islamic State in that country. as well as other partner offers and accept our. Hitler and Stalin carved up Poland in 1939, and after the war the Soviet Union annexed most of the Polish territory it grabbed in 1939, with . Many of the aspects of a major conflict between the West and say, Russia or China, have already been developed, rehearsed and deployed. The scenario outlined above is an outlier, but one still within the realm of possibility. A modern-day nuclear bomb could wipe out an entire city and cause third-degree . "I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s [Russian missiles]. As . However, there is little doubt that cross-strait tensions remain significant. Concerns over the ability of Ukraine to continue the war in the long-term might force Kyiv to take risky steps of its own to break the stalemate. taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime, Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages. The argument goes that Putin would employ a type of hybrid warfare perfected in Ukraine to rally ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic states to rise up in support with special operations forces the so-called "little green men.". Naval Institute News, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Combat Aircraft Monthly, VICE News, and others. The commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, testified to Congress in April 2021 that the United States might well face a two-front or even a three-front war if Russia were to . NATO is struggling to figure out how to respond, with member nations holding differing perspectives on when Russian behavior crosses a red line. "Hybrid warfare casts doubts about when there should be a military response, or whether this is a civilian issue that should be taken care of by local law enforcement," he said. The dynamic between the two states seems driven by impatience; an impatience in the North that the world still refuses to take it seriously despite its magnificent nuclear weapons, and an impatience in the South that a nation of great significance remains burdened by its inept and retrograde sibling. In reality, civilians would know in advance if a nuclear weapon would be potentially detonated, giving some enough time to seek shelter. A 'concentrated' attack is needed to disrupt the stalemated war, Ben Barry said. But while Russia's conventional forces are less impressive than its nuclear forces, there are specific conventional areas where the Russians excel among them aircraft, air defenses, submarines,. The Russians reportedly are shipping some of their most advanced surface-to-air missile systems into Latakia, raising concerns inside the Pentagon because that move runs counter to Russia's claims of limiting the focus of its military activities to Syrian rebel groups like the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. aggressively undermining America's 25-year claim to being the only truly global superpower. Ukrainian troops face threats from insurgents and conventionally trained forces. Russia reportedly is expanding its footprint at the Tarus facility. "This is really quite difficult for them. Russias leadership would then warn that any attempt to retaliate would unleash the rest of the countrys nuclear weapons, killing millions more and destroying the U.S. as a military, political, and economic entity. Five U.S. Army brigadesbacked up by fighters, bombers, and cruise missilesdrive from Poland to Kyiv, then on to Donetsk. "We should be able to achieve our objectives and keep the Indo-Pacific, for example, free and open and prosperous into the future. Were that to happen, Russia would have to expand the defensive force to 40,000-55,000 troops . How badly would Russia suffer? Wed 26 Apr 2023 09.14 EDT Last modified on Wed 26 Apr 2023 16.13 EDT. What Would Happen if a Nuclear War with Russia Broke Out This Is What a Nuclear War Between the U.S. and Russia Could Look Like It would likely involve more than 3,000 warheads used by. During the defense's cross-examination of E. Jean Carroll, Trump's attorney asked the writer why she "did not scream" when she was "supposedly raped.". Since its annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Russia has steadily expanded its military presence in the region. By early spring, the United States and its allies were pursuing policies that would result in the death of Russian soldiers, the destruction of Russian military equipment, and the long-term degradation of the Russian economy. For the small cadre of U.S. military professionals who've been working alongside Ukrainian government forces, the fight against Russian-backed rebels is a major change from their recent experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. Still more, living downwind from blast zones, would be at risk of illness or death from radioactive fallout. It really doesnt make much difference, because there would be hardly anyone left in the United States in a position to notice. Why you can trust Sky News. Would a nuclear counterattack achieve anything? But what does the future of great-power warfare look like and is the West a match for the challenges ahead? They're using sophisticated electronic warfare systems to jam the Ukrainians' communications, radar, GPS and early warning-detection equipment, said Ihor Dolhov, Ukraine's deputy defense minister for European integration. Russia's increasingly aggressive posture has sparked a sweeping review among U.S. defense strategists of America's military policies and contingency plans in the event of a conflict with the former Soviet state. The United Nations is accustomed to oddity, absurdity and a certain amount of hypocrisy. The ICBMs would target Americas nukes, including the 400 ICBM silos sprinkled across the western United States, nuclear bomber bases in Missouri and Louisiana, and missile submarine bases at Kings Bay, Georgia, and Kitsap, Washington. What Would a NATO-Russia War Really Look Like? The second possibility is the eastern war approach. The war has caused global ripples, raising the stakes of . Photo Credit: Andrey Kronberg/AFP/Getty Images. Kalashnikov, who died on December 23, 2013 at the age of 94, was to receive a funeral with full state honours and be buried at the Federal Military Memorial Cemetery (FVMK) in Mytishchi outside Moscow, the defence ministry said. Russia on June 20 slammed the EU's extension of sanctions over its annexation of Crimea as "blackmail" and vowed it would not be pressured into returning the peninsula to Ukraine. In the current situation, lacking a direct U.S. and Russian confrontation, the likelihood of nuclear war is somewhere near zero. Other estimates are much higher, but in general there is a high degree of uncertainty about how much of those forces exist only on paper, and how many are truly prepared for combat. Smoke rises over Talbiseh, a city in western Syria's Homs province, on Sept. 30, marking Russian first airstrikes in the region. Farkas is stepping down from her post at the end of October, after five years at the Defense Department. "In all likelihood, yes," he says. Sign up for notifications from Insider! "Because great powers are massively investing not only in offensive cyber capabilities but also in electronic warfare capabilities that can jam satellites and bring down communication. So not just the military but societies overall will be a prime target in future conflict.". Russia depends on Iranian airspace for its flight corridors into Syria, and reportedly is prepared to support Iranian ground troops aligned with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Analysts say Russia has a menu of options to attack at any moment it chooses, from shock-and-awe style air strikes to a ground invasion along a broad front. "While we were focused on the broader Middle East," she says, "these countries went to school on the Western way of war. This can massively speed up commanders' decision-making and response times, allowing them to process information far more quickly. Attempting a side-by-side comparisons of the U.S. and Russian militaries is a bit like comparing apples to oranges, many experts say; the Russians have distinctly different strategic goals, and their military structure reflects that. One factor that is likely to play a major role in future warfare is artificial intelligence - AI. Over the past several months tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang have grown steadily, with North Korean provocations (often themselves driven by the Kim regime's idiosyncratic and cryptic assessments of the international environment) incurring aggressive rhetorical responses from the South. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the coastal infrastructure that stretched from Kalingrad to Leningrad was lost to the newly independent Baltic states. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. 19FortyFive's defense and national security contributing editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. Vladimir Putin has reminded Europe since invading Ukraine that Russia is still a nuclear superpower. In our scenario, both sides are devastated with no winners. But few believe any conflict would play out like that. In February 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine, starting the largest clash in Europe since World War II. ", "The United States and Russia are going for different things," Galeotti said. Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey's assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. "The simulation was also supported by data sets of the nuclear weapons currently deployed, weapon yields, and possible targets for particular weapons, as well as the order of battle estimating which weapons go to which targets in which order in which phase of the war to show the evolution of the nuclear conflict. We can hope that the leaders of the world's great powers will take care over the coming year with the vast stockpiles of weapons that they control. In this scenario, both sides have lost. "A crisis like the one we are currently facing often results in miscommunication between parties, exacerbated by the fact that there remain very few active lines of communication between Russia and the U.S./NATO," said Glaser, who is an associate professor at Princeton's School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. by TNI Staff Here's What You Need To Know: Russia would need to size its invasion.